Anaplasma spp forecast 2019

20190402 Capc Forecast Maps Display Anaplasmosis

The CAPC Prevalence and Forecast Maps represent exposure to both A. phagocytophilum and A. platys. The two pathogens are transmitted by different tick vectors (Ixodes spp. and Rhipicephalussanguineus, respectively) with different geographical ranges. However, the overlap in ranges prevents distinction between the two on the CAPC Prevalence and Forecast Maps. Prevention is mostly the same and requires limiting exposure to tick habitats, routine use of acaricides, and regular tick checks of pets.

  • Throughout much of the contiguous United States the seroprevalence of Anaplasmaspp. in dogs is remaining the same compared to the previous seven years.
  • Veterinarians in New York and Pennsylvania, most notably eastern Pennsylvania, should reinforce the recommendations to their clients on the regular use of tick throughout the year. Anaplasmaspp. exposure is expected to be higher than average this year.
  • The local variability of seroprevalence is well demonstrated in Massachusetts. Although lower prevalence is expected near the coast, a slightly higher seroprevalence is predicted in the western edge of the state.
  • Three areas are predicted to have a lower than average year: the Atlantic Coast of the New England States, particularly in Massachusetts; much of the upper Midwest, particularly Wisconsin and parts of Minnesota and the upper peninsula of Michigan; and southern Texas.

Year-round protection, annual testing

The best way to protect your patients is to advise owners of the importance of year-round prevention, even during the winter months. You can use the CAPC Parasite Prevalence Maps to support your recommendation by underscoring the risks in your area and in regions of the country your clients may travel with their pets. It is also critical to emphasize the importance of compliance and using products according to label. The use of CAPC Parasite Prevalence maps and Forecast maps are a validated tool for increasing client willingness to engage in parasite prevention. Sign up for local alerts today by visiting the CAPC Parasite Prevalence Maps and selecting "Get Updates.

Veterinary professionals and pet owners who want to monitor the activity in their county throughout the year, can also access 30-Day Parasite Forecast Maps at www.petdiseasealerts.org. These maps, developed exclusively by CAPC, provide a local forecast for every county in the continental United States on a monthly basis.

The Science behind the Forecasts

Vector-borne disease is dynamic and ever changing, driven by multiple factors that affect the development of arthropod vectors and the pathogens they carry. Leading parasitologists work in collaboration with a team of statisticians to identify regions of the country that may experience higher parasite incidence in the months ahead. Numerous factors are analyzed, including the number of positive tests and the influence of weather patterns, vegetation indices, and human population density. Using this multi-disciplinary approach, we are leveraging everyone’s expertise to focus on a single common interest: forecasting the risk of exposure to vector-borne pathogens. While these forecasts predict the potential risk of a dog testing positive, they do not necessarily reflect the occurrence of clinical disease.

To learn more about the science behind the maps, full access to our manuscripts describing the methodology and fidelity of our forecasts can be found here