CAPC Publications

This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. ...

This paper models the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in domestic dogs in the United States using climate, geographic, and societal factors. We then use this model to forecast the prevalence of antibodies to B. burgdorferi in dogs for 2016. ...

Background: Dogs in the United States are hosts to a diverse range of vector-borne pathogens, several of which are important zoonoses. This paper describes factors deemed to be significantly related to the prevalence of antibodies to Ehrlichia spp. in domestic dogs, including climatic conditions, geographical factors, and societal factors. These factors are used in concert with a spatio-temporal model to construct an annual seroprevalence forecast. The proposed method of forecasting and an assessment of its fidelity are described...

This paper develops a large-scale Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression model to investigate regional trends in antibody prevalence to Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease. Our model uses Guassian predictive processes to estimate the spatially varying trends and a conditional autoregressive scheme to account for spatio-temporal dependence. A novel framework, easily scalable to large spatio-temporal data, is developed. The proposed model is used to analyze about 16 million B. burgdorferi antibody Lyme tests performed on canine samples in the conterminous United States over the sixty-month period from January 2012 to December 2016. This analysis identified areas of increasing canine Lyme disease risk; prevalence of infection is getting worse in endemic regions and increases are also seen in non-endemic regions. Because Lyme disease is zoonotic, affecting both humans and dogs, the analysis also serves to pinpoint areas areas of increasing human risk...

Background The cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis), a parasite commonly found on both dogs and cats, is a competent vector for several zoonotic pathogens, including Dipylidium caninum (tapeworms), Bartonella henselae (responsible for cat scratch disease) and Rickettsia felis (responsible for flea-borne spotted fever). Veterinarians recommend that both cats and dogs be routinely treated with medications to prevent flea infestation. Nevertheless, surveys suggest that nearly one third of pet owners do not routinely administer appropriate preventatives...

Domestic dogs are susceptible to numerous vector-borne pathogens that are of significant importance for their health. In addition to being of veterinary importance, many of these pathogens are zoonotic and thus may pose a risk to human health. In the USA, owned dogs are commonly screened for exposure to or infection with several canine vector-borne pathogens. Although the screening data are widely available to show areas where infections are being diagnosed, testing of owned dogs is expected to underestimate the actual prevalence in dogs that have no access to veterinary care. The goal of this study was to measure the association between the widely available data from a perceived low-risk population with temporally and spatially collected data from shelter-housed dog populations. These data were then used to extrapolate the prevalence in dogs that generally lack veterinary care. The focus pathogens included Dirofilaria immitis, Ehrlichia spp., Anaplasma spp., and Borrelia burgdorferi. There was a linear association between the prevalence of selected vector-borne pathogens in shelter-housed and owned dog populations and, generally, the data suggested that prevalence of heartworm (D. immitis) infection and seroprevalence of Ehrlichia spp. and B. burgdorferi are higher in shelter-housed dogs, regardless of their location, compared with the owned population. The seroprevalence of Anaplasma spp. was predicted to be higher in areas that have very low to low seroprevalence, but unexpectedly, in areas of higher seroprevalence within the owned population, the seroprevalence was expected to be lower in the shelter-housed dog population. If shelters and veterinarians make decisions to not screen dogs based on the known seroprevalence of the owned group, they are likely underestimating the risk of exposure. This is especially true for heartworm. With this new estimate of the seroprevalence in shelter-housed dogs throughout the USA, shelters and veterinarians can make evidence-based informed decisions on whether testing and screening for these pathogens is appropriate for their local dog population. This work represents an important step in understanding the relationships in the seroprevalences of vector-borne pathogens between shelter-housed and owned dogs, and provides valuable data on the risk of vector-borne diseases in dogs...

Diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of vector-borne disease (VBD) in pets is one cornerstone of companion animal practices. Veterinarians are facing new challenges associated with the emergence, reemergence, and rising incidence of VBD, including heartworm disease, Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and ehrlichiosis. Increases in the observed prevalence of these diseases have been attributed to a multitude of factors, including diagnostic tests with improved sensitivity, expanded annual testing practices, climatologic and ecological changes enhancing vector survival and expansion, emergence or recognition of novel pathogens, and increased movement of pets as travel companions. Veterinarians have the additional responsibility of providing information about zoonotic pathogen transmission from pets, especially to vulnerable human populations: the immunocompromised, children, and the elderly. Hindering efforts to protect pets and people is the dynamic and ever-changing nature of VBD prevalence and distribution. To address this deficit in understanding, the Companion Animal Parasite Council (CAPC) began efforts to annually forecast VBD prevalence in 2011. These forecasts provide veterinarians and pet owners with expected disease prevalence in advance of potential changes. This review summarizes the fidelity of VBD forecasts and illustrates the practical use of CAPC pathogen prevalence maps and forecast data in the practice of veterinary medicine and client education...

Background: Dogs in the United States are hosts to a diverse range of ticks and tick-borne pathogens, including A. phagocytophilum, an important emerging canine and human pathogen. Previously, a Companion Animal Parasite Council (CAPC)-sponsored workshop proposed factors purported to be associated with the infection risk for tick transmitted pathogens in dogs in the United States, including climate conditions, socioeconomic characteristics, local topography, and vector distribution...

Background: This paper examines the individual factors that influence prevalence rates of canine heartworm in the contiguous United States. A data set provided by the Companion Animal Parasite Council, which contains county-by-county results of over nine million heartworm tests conducted during 2011 and 2012, is analyzed for predictive structure. The goal is to identify the factors that are important in predicting high canine heartworm prevalence rates...

Background: This paper forecasts next year’s canine heartworm prevalence in the United States from 16 climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast’s construction and an assessment of its performance are described...

An examination of the Companion Animal Parasite Council’s (CAPC) canine heartworm data to clarify the spatial prevalence of heartworm in the United States. Factors thought to influence the spatial risk of disease, as identified in a recent CAPC workshop, are discussed...

Lyme disease (LD) is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Early confirmatory diagnosis remains a challenge, while the disease can be debilitating if left untreated. Further, the decision to test is complicated by under-reporting, low positive predictive values of testing in non-endemic areas and travel, which together exacerbate the difficulty in identification of newly endemic areas or areas of emerging concern. Spatio-temporal analyses at the national scale are critical to establishing a baseline human LD risk assessment tool that would allow for the detection of changes in these areas. A well-established surrogate for human LD incidence is canine LD seroprevalence, making it a strong candidate covariate for use in such analyses. In this paper, Bayesian statistical methods were used to fit a spatio-temporal spline regression model to estimate the relationship between human LD incidence and canine seroprevalence, treating the latter as an explanatory covariate. A strong non-linear monotonically increasing association was found. That is, this analysis suggests that mean incidence in humans increases with canine seroprevalence until the seroprevalence in dogs reaches approximately 30%. This finding reinforces the use of canines as sentinels for human LD risk, especially with respect to identifying geographic areas of concern for potential human exposure...

The Companion Animal Parasite Council hosted a meeting to identify quantifiable factors that can influence the prevalence of tick-borne disease agents among dogs in North America. This report summarizes the approach used and the factors identified for further analysis with mathematical models of canine exposure to tick-borne pathogens...

Background: Canine heartworm disease is a potentially fatal disease for which treatment is financially burdensome for many pet owners. Prevention is strongly advocated by the veterinary community along with routine testing for infection during annual wellness examinations. Despite the availability of efficacious chemoprophylaxis, recent reports have suggested that the incidence of heartworm disease in domestic dogs is increasing...

In 2019, in the United States, over 220,000 and 350,000 dogs tested positive for exposure to Anaplasma spp. and Borrelia burgdorferi, respectively. To evaluate regional and local temporal trends of pathogen exposure we used a Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression model, analyzing serologic test results for these pathogens from January 2013 to December 2019. Regional trends were not static over time, but rather increased within and beyond the borders of historically endemic regions. Increased seroprevalence was observed as far as North Carolina and North Dakota for both pathogens. Local trends were estimated to evaluate the heterogeneity of underlying changes. A large cluster of counties with increased B. burgdorferi seroprevalence centered around West Virginia, while a similar cluster of counties with increased Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence centered around Pennsylvania and extended well into Maine. In the Midwest, only a small number of counties experienced an increase in seroprevalence; instead, most counties had a decrease in seroprevalence for both pathogens. These trends will help guide veterinarians and pet owners in adopting the appropriate preventative care practices for their area. Additionally, B. burgdorferi and A. phagocytophilum cause disease in humans. Dogs are valuable sentinels for some vector-borne pathogens, and these trends may help public health providers better understand the risk of exposure for humans...