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Understanding the CAPC Forecast Maps
by Stella Coker Watson Self, PhD

Each spring, CAPC publishes annual forecasts maps for Lyme disease, ehrlichiosis, anaplasmosis and heartworm disease for the contiguous United States (US), as well as a Lyme disease forecast for southern Canada. These maps predict the proportion of dogs tested in veterinary clinics who will receive a positive test result for antigen (D. immitis) or antibody (Borrelia burgdorferi, Ehrlichia spp., and Anaplasma spp.) detection. The forecast maps are derived from routine testing data collected from clinics across the US and Canada and then aggregated by year and county (in the US) or forward sortation area or FSA (in Canada). There are over 61 million test results for each the three tick-borne agents and over 121,000,000 test results for the heartworm parasite. The maps also leverage several other data sources, including annual temperature, relative humidity and precipitation data collected from the PRISM database maintained by Oregon University1 (US), or the ClimateNA model2 (Canada), elevation and other ecological data derived from the National Land Cover Database3 (US) and North American Land Change Monitoring System4 (Canada), and socio-demographic data such as median household income and population density obtained from the US Census Bureau5 and the Canadian Census of Population6. The heartworm forecast also leverages data on the presence or absence of 5 Aedes, 2 Anopheles and 1 Culex mosquito species7...

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Understanding the CAPC Forecast Maps
by Stella Coker Watson Self, PhD

Each spring, CAPC publishes annual forecasts maps for Lyme disease, ehrlichiosis, anaplasmosis and heartworm disease for the contiguous United States (US), as well as a Lyme disease forecast for southern Canada. These maps predict the proportion of dogs tested in veterinary clinics who will receive a positive test result for antigen (D. immitis) or antibody (Borrelia burgdorferi, Ehrlichia spp., and Anaplasma spp.) detection. The forecast maps are derived from routine testing data collected from clinics across the US and Canada and then aggregated by year and county (in the US) or forward sortation area or FSA (in Canada). There are over 61 million test results for each the three tick-borne agents and over 121,000,000 test results for the heartworm parasite. The maps also leverage several other data sources, including annual temperature, relative humidity and precipitation data collected from the PRISM database maintained by Oregon University1 (US), or the ClimateNA model2 (Canada), elevation and other ecological data derived from the National Land Cover Database3 (US) and North American Land Change Monitoring System4 (Canada), and socio-demographic data such as median household income and population density obtained from the US Census Bureau5 and the Canadian Census of Population6. The heartworm forecast also leverages data on the presence or absence of 5 Aedes, 2 Anopheles and 1 Culex mosquito species7...

Read More